Ahead of the opening weekend of the 2025 Six Nations, we take a look at how the results in Round One can impact the World Rugby rankings.
Defending champions Ireland head into the Championship as the top-ranked northern hemisphere team, with just South Africa ahead of them.
World rankings permutations
However, they will put their ranking spot on the line when they collide with seventh-ranked England at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday.
Ireland will not be able to knock the Springboks off the top of the rankings this weekend as they cannot improve their rating with victory over England because of the 8.47-point difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
However, a defeat will see them drop below New Zealand into third place. They will fall even further if they lose by more than 15 points and France beat Wales in the first game of the tournament on Friday – Les Bleus will move up to third if these events unfold.
Like Ireland, France cannot improve their rating due to the gap between them and Wales in the rankings. Les Bleus currently have a 14.50 points difference between themselves and Wales before home weighting is factored in.
However, unlike Ireland, Fabien Galthie’s side will not drop in the rankings if they fall to defeat even if Wales win by more than 15 points.
Meanwhile, Scotland can gain a maximum of 0.35 rating points if they manage to defeat 10th-ranked Italy at Murrayfield on Saturday. This means that England could jump two places into fifth if they defeat Ireland by more than 15 points.
A smaller margin of victory for Steve Borthwick’s side will still see them move ahead of Scotland into sixth place.
In the event that Scotland and England are defeated this weekend, the latter will move ahead of the former in the rankings as they will not lose any rating points in defeat.
Italy have ranking history within their grasp when they head to Murrayfield as a win of more than 15 points would see them equal their highest-ever ranking of eighth, which would see Scotland drop to ninth. A smaller margin of victory would still see them surpass Fiji in ninth.
Finally, Wales cannot improve on their 11th place ranking even if they defeat France by more than 15 points and Italy lose to Scotland. They would trim the gap on the Azzurri to just one rating point though.
FRANCE (4) 88.51 v WALES (11) 74.01
France win by 15 points or less – France 88.51, Wales 74.01 (No change)
France win by more than 15 points – France 88.51, Wales 74.01 (No change)
Draw – France 87.51, Wales 75.01
Wales win by 15 points or less – France 86.51, Wales 76.01
Wales win by more than 15 points – France 85.51, Wales 77.01
SCOTLAND (6) 83.34 v ITALY (10) 78.64
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 83.57, Italy 78.41
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 83.69, Italy 78.30
Draw – Scotland 82.57, Italy 79.41
Italy win by 15 points or less – Scotland 81.57, Italy 80.41
Italy win by more than 15 points – Scotland 80.69, Italy 81.30
IRELAND (2) 90.78 v ENGLAND (7) 82.31
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 90.78, England 82.31 (No change)
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 90.78, England 82.31 (No change)
Draw – Ireland 89.78, England 83.31
England win by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.78, England 84.31
England win by more than 15 points – Ireland 87.78, England 85.31
Current World Rugby rankings (As of 31/01/2024)
1 South Africa 92.78
2 Ireland 90.78
3 New Zealand 90.36
4 France 88.51
5 Argentina 84.97
6 Scotland 83.34
7 England 82.31
8 Australia 81.52
9 Fiji 80.07
10 Italy 78.64
11 Wales 74.01
12 Georgia 73.85
13 Japan 72.95
14 Samoa 72.68
15 USA 70.02
16 Portugal 68.82
17 Uruguay 67.06
18 Spain 65.98
19 Tonga 65.46
20 Romania 63.01
READ MORE: ‘Unmissable’: Why you just HAVE to visit Murrayfield in style this Six Nations
Src: Planetrugby.com - https://www.planetrugby.com/news/world-rankings-ireland-could-tumble-as-italy-target-record-high-during-the-opening-six-nations-weekend
