By the end of ‘Super Saturday’, this game between two great rivals may well turn out to be meaningless but, as things currently stand, plenty is riding on the Six Nations clash in Cardiff.
For starters, England are very much in the title hunt thanks to three successive victories and the efforts of France, who did that rather rare thing and helped the English, even if it was Les Bleus that obviously benefited most from their Dublin demolition.
Steve Borthwick’s men have once again received plenty of criticism during this championship but they do go into the final round with realistic hopes of lifting the title for the first time since 2020. However, like last weekend, they are reliant on the generosity of others and this time from Scotland, where favours are perhaps even rarer than France.
A victory combined with a French defeat will be enough for England to win the 2025 Six Nations, but that sounds much easier than it actually is. Given the unbelievable performance of Fabien Galthie’s men at the Aviva Stadium, it will be a mammoth task for the Scots in Paris.
Still, second place would be deemed a success for the Borthwick’s outfit, but only if they can produce a convincing display in Cardiff. There is potential for their campaign to end in embarrassment should the hosts emerge triumphant at the Principality Stadium on Saturday.
Wales’ losing run in Tests currently stands at 16 and they would love nothing more than to end it against their greatest rugby enemy and derail the visitors’ hopes. There is just a feeling in the air that they might just do it, especially with them showing some promising signs against Ireland and Scotland.
Since Matt Sherratt’s arrival, there has been an improvement, which started against the Irish where they put up an impressive fight before succumbing 27-18. And although they were pretty shambolic for the first 60 minutes against Scotland, the comeback suggested that they have enough in their armoury to cause England plenty of problems.
It would be a huge upset should the hosts finally be on the right side of the scoreline this weekend but, to be perfectly honest, we don’t think it is an outrageous suggestion.
Where the game will be won
There is a lot to like about what Sherratt and his backroom team have done in such a short space of time, particularly with ball in hand. Some of that is personnel, with the introduction of Gareth Anscombe and Max Llewellyn, and moving Ben Thomas to his best position at 12, but a lot of it is simply good coaching. What they are doing is not necessarily out of the ordinary, but they are shifting the point of contact smartly and providing opportunities for their dangerous back three.
With England’s defence still rather suspect, and moving usual wing Tommy Freeman to the most difficult defensive position of 13, it will be fascinating to see how the hosts approach the contest. Against Ireland, they varied it nicely and, as a result, stressed the opposition rearguard. Unfortunately for them, however, Tom Rogers’ absence gives them less of an aerial presence, while the visitors have looked to shore that up by bringing in Tom Roebuck on the wing.
As a result, the Welsh may look to move the ball through the hands slightly more, but that brings about its own risk given that the Red Rose have reverted to three opensides in the back-row, a tactic they used in Round One. With Wales also lacking the powerful carriers to make metres at close quarters, they will therefore have to be wary of overplaying.
Interestingly, Wales-England contests have tended to be a bit of a kick-fest over the past decade, and there is a nagging doubt that it could happen again, even if Borthwick states that he wants his team to play with pace and ambition this weekend. With the squad selected – having two good chasers in Elliot Daly and Roebuck on the wing alongside the aerially strong Freeman at centre – it makes sense to put the Welsh back three under pressure in that area.
Unfortunately, in the view of many English fans at least, it may look more like the Scotland game than the Italy one, especially with the set-piece appearing to be in their favour. The Red Rose have a more powerful front five than Wales and they will no doubt target the scrum. If they get set-piece dominance then it gives them more scope to attack, but games between these two tend to be pretty cautious affairs and it would not be surprising if that is repeated on Super Saturday.
Last time they met
What they said
Wales lock Dafydd Jenkins insists that they are determined to spoil England’s day as the visitors go into the weekend with a shot at claiming the title.
“This is the game you dream of playing in as a kid. It’s sold out. I’m pretty sure they can win the championship, so we can’t be having that in Cardiff, can we?” he said.
“Everyone had written us off going into the Ireland game and I think a lot of the fans were just proud of the fact we were taking it to probably one of the top teams in the world. All credit to Ireland, many teams would probably have got spooked, especially when we were up.
“That’s why you can tell they are a top team – somewhere we want to be – because they kept composed in those tough situations.”
England boss Borthwick continues to be adamant that they want to play with ambition and stretch the opposition defence with ball in hand.
“Our aspiration is to win the tournament, that has always been the target and that has not changed. The team is really clear on what we need to do to put ourselves in that position,” he said.
“Every England supporter would be expecting us to say that, and that is exactly what we’re aiming to do. We want to do it by playing fast and getting the ball to our players with strength, pace and athleticism. That is exactly how we want to play this weekend.”
Although they have lost Ollie Lawrence, one of their X-factor backs, Freeman can also offer dynamism in the midfield after being shifted to centre.
“Tommy has moved to 13 within many games and has covered centre for us before. With his athleticism, the ground he can cover and his power in the carry, he has always been that option. He has grown to become a formidable Test player,” Borthwick added.
Players to watch
Against a pretty sturdy England pack, Wales need to get front foot ball in the closer exchanges from somewhere and, alongside captain Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau, who have both been immense, they have brought Aaron Wainwright into the starting line-up. Despite having a comparatively slight frame, Wainwright is a dynamic ball carrier and will certainly beef up that back five. Equally, he is superb in the lineout and will test an English set-piece which only has two jumpers.
In the scrum, it might be a different matter, though, and the onus will be on Nicky Smith and WillGriff John to keep the English props at bay. Smith has been one of the best props in the Premiership this season, but both he and John have endured a mixed couple of games set-piece-wise. In Round Three, John was excellent when going head-to-head with Andrew Porter but the Welsh front-row struggled against a Scottish trio that had faltered in their previous matches.
Behind the scrum, it’s pretty similar to how Wales have lined up against Ireland and Scotland. Blair Murray continues to look a real find and England will have to be wary of his fleet-footed brilliance, while Tomos Williams has taken his Gloucester form into the past couple of matches. However, Sherratt has thrown one curveball and that is in the selection of Joe Roberts, who is on the wing. He has never started in that position in a professional game so it will be a big test for him this weekend.
Borthwick has also taken a big risk by shifting Tommy Freeman from wing to centre. Unlike Roberts, he does have plenty of experience in his new position having done it plenty of times for Northampton Saints, but it is one thing doing it at club level and another to do it in the cauldron of the Principality Stadium. There is no doubting Freeman’s qualities with ball in hand and he provides plenty of punch in the midfield, but 13 is the toughest place to defend and Wales will look to test his decision-making.
The call to move the Saints star has therefore opened the door for Tom Roebuck, who more than deserves his opportunity after consistently playing well for Sale Sharks in the Premiership. He has also shone in his brief cameos at Test level, scoring his first England try in the dominant victory over Japan in the Autumn Nations Series. Roebuck is tall, strong and renowned for his aerial work, but he has much more to his game than that. The 24-year-old does not have express pace, but he is more than quick enough and has a lovely step and balance that allows him to evade defenders in tight spaces.
Meanwhile, up front, England have once again ordered double Curry in the form of twins Tom and Ben, repeating the tactic which worked pretty effectively in Ireland. They are alongside Ben Earl and the trio will look to continually disrupt Welsh ball at the breakdown. The siblings may be identical, but they play slightly differently, with Tom a bit more physical in contact and Ben the better poacher at the breakdown.
Main head-to-head
This is pretty much the last chance for many players to impress before the British and Irish Lions squad is named. Although there are big European games coming up, Andy Farrell will place far more weight on Six Nations form and there will be a fascinating duel between number eights Taulupe Faletau and Ben Earl.
Before the Scotland encounter, Faletau was nowhere near the conversation, but that display reminded everyone of his quality. The Wales centurion was absolutely superb and he will once again be a crucial cog on Saturday, given his ability to get over the gain line and win the close quarter battles.
He comes up against a player who has consistently been one of England’s best over the past two years in Earl. While the Saracens man has not necessarily been as good as he was at the 2023 Rugby World Cup or the during the 2024 Six Nations, he is still playing exceptionally well and doing all he can to get on that plane to Australia. At the moment, you rather feel he is on the fringes of the wider squad, but a top-class display in Cardiff may well seal his place.
Prediction
The Welsh crowd will be loud and the team will no doubt react with their efforts on the field. If they can reproduce their performance against Ireland then Sherratt’s men can keep it close, but we feel that England will just have a bit too much quality this weekend, just like Simon Easterby’s side did in Round Three. Borthwick has made some risky calls by naming no locks on the bench and moving Freeman to 13, but the strengths of his side can very much exploit the weaknesses of Wales. England by 10 points.
Previous results
2024: England won 16-14 in London
2023: England won 19-17 in London
2023: Wales won 20-9 in Cardiff
2023: England won 20-10 in Cardiff
2022: England won 23-19 in London
2021: Wales won 40-24 in Cardiff
2020: England won 24-13 in Llanelli
2020: England won 33-30 in London
2019: Wales won 13-6 in Cardiff
2019: England won 33-19 in London
2019: Wales won 21-13 in Cardiff
The teams
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Joe Roberts, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 WillGriff John, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Nicky Smith
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins
England: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Ben Curry, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Will Stuart, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Henry Pollock, 21 Tom Willis, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 George Ford
Date: Saturday, March 15
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 16:45 GMT
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (France), Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Src: Planetrugby.com - https://www.planetrugby.com/news/wales-v-england-preview-wooden-spoon-awaits-hosts-as-borthwicks-side-flex-their-quality-before-praying-for-rare-favour
