It all comes to this as Leinster and the Bulls collide at the home of GAA, Croke Park Stadium, with silverware on the line in the United Rugby Championship Grand Final.
For the hosts, it’s a shot at redemption after failing yet again to get their hands on the Investec Champions Cup trophy as the threat of yet another trophy-less season looms large.
A superstar-studded outfit that has failed to deliver the success it promises despite reaching multiple showpiece events but is accused of not giving the URC the respect it deserves. Will this time around be different?
Their task will be far from an easy one as they go up against the most successful South African team in international competitions, the three-time Super Rugby champions, the Bulls.
Jake White’s men have been incredibly consistent since the SA teams made the move north, as they reach the final for the third time in four attempts but have yet to replicate the efforts of Heyneke Meyer’s charges in 2007 and go that one step further.
But they will head to the marvellous stadium in Dublin rather confident, having knocked over the Irish powerhouse, having won four of their previous five meetings and all of their last five fixtures against Irish Provinces.
Paired with that is the fact that they have lost just twice on the road en route to the final this season, and their play-off record against Leinster, which reads two-nil in favour of the men from Pretoria.
This all sets up a mouth-watering showpiece event as the modern-day rivalry between the South African and Irish teams heats up.
Where the game will be won
Leinster head into the finale as 12 points favourites according to the bookies, but Leo Cullen and his charges will be well aware of the threat that the Bulls pose.
Leinster have been in imperious form throughout the URC losing just twice, going down to the same opposition they will face in the final and the Scarlets, with the Jacques Nienaber-coached defence being a focal of their success.
But it would be remise to suggest that Leinster are purely a defensive outfit as they ranked top in the league for most points and points scored as well as ranking second for offloads, third for metres gained and fifth for defenders beaten and clean breaks.
The Bulls aren’t far too far off, ranking second for points and tries scored but are lower in the list for offloads (8th), metres gained (7th), defenders beaten (11th), and clean breaks (7th).
Where do look to have a real edge is in discipline having conceded just eight yellow cards and zero reds compared to the Bulls 19 and four.
While the ability to keep 15 men on the park throughout the final will be undoubtedly crucial, the true battle will be as per usual, the deciding factor.
It is the area of the game where the Bulls will feel rather confident, considering how they have dominated that facet of the game throughout the season. Spearheaded by the man mountain Wilco Louw in the front row, the Bulls boast a 94% success rate at scrum time, winning more penalties (46) than any other club.
Leinster, meanwhile, have an 89% success rate and have conceded 49 penalties at the set-piece. In stark contrast, the Bulls have conceded just 32 penalties at scrum time.
Last week, the Bulls clearly got the upper hand against a fellow all-Springbok front rower when they dispatched the Sharks to reach the final but weren’t rewarded for their efforts with penalties.
While Andrew Brace did not reward the dominance, Andrea Piardi might just as the Italian referee ranks in the top five for penalty scrum award on average in the URC this season.
It’s worth noting that the last match between these two sides was decided by a David Kriel penalty kick with the clock in the red after the Bulls claimed a penalty at a scrum.
Additionally, the lineout will be just as pivotal as it still remains the richest source of tries in top-flight rugby. Leinster boasts an 84% success rate in this facet of the game, a lowly 13th-ranked success rate in the league while the Bulls boast a similar 86%. However, both teams are fierce competitors at the set-piece on opposition ball with Leinster claiming the most steals (33) and the Bulls the second most (26).
Last time they met
What they said
Leinster boss Leo Cullen is bracing for a huge challenge and is wary of the role that the conditions will play in the final with Dublin being incredibly wet in the build to the match.
“The conditions are very front and centre of my mind because it’s been lashing rain here all morning,” he said.
“So, look I don’t think the weather is meant to be as bad on Saturday so yes, we will try and play with a positive mentality. I think you saw the group last week against Glasgow. There was a mix. There was a positive effort to play and then okay there is a heavy downpour at half time so then you’ve got that.
“There is a certain amount of feel and understanding of the conditions on the day.”
The Irish Province are out to win their first URC trophy having failed to make the final since the addition of the South African teams. Meanwhile, the Bulls are featuring in their third final having last the inaugural finale to the Stormers and last’s season’s showpiece to Glasgow.
“I think the way some of the questions are leading me it’s like whoever loses is a failure in this game,” Cullen suggested. “So they are two good teams going at it. If you lose in a final, are you classified as a failure?”
Meanwhile, Bulls boss Jake White hailed Leinster as the benchmark of the URC.
“I think they’ve got 23 internationals, and that’s only because they’re only allowed to play 23. So, they’ve got a many more internationals than we’ve got. I’ll repeat myself, they are the benchmark of where every club team wants to get to,” he said.
“When you think about it, if you have a board meeting and you ask for a tighthead prop and you get Rabah Slimani and you ask for a lock and you get RG Snyman, and you ask for an inside back and you get Jordie Barrett, there’s not many clubs in the world that would be able to go into a board meeting and not just firstly get that, secondly not only get the positions but thirdly get that calibre of player.
“So Leo’s right, we’ve got better, and our team is growing, and we are much better than we were four years ago when this group started. As I said to Ruan (Njorte, his Springbok-capped captain) when we walked in, he was 21 when he started playing and now he’s 26. And a lot of his team-mates from juniors were in that team, and then came the younger guys like Canan (Moodie) and Cameron (Hanekom).
“So we’re still not where we want to be, and that’s selfishly from me as a director, but we are far better, and I take it as a massive compliment from a guy like Leo, who I rate highly and I know really well.”
Players to watch
Cullen has selected a mighty matchday 23 to tackle the Bulls, with winger Tommy O’Brien being the only player yet to play international rugby but that is bound to change in July after the speedster earned his first call-up to the Ireland squad. O’Brien has not been the most lethal finisher in the URC this season, crossing just twice in the league, but he has been central to Nienaber’s rush defence and pops up in tricky situations for the opposition defence to deal with.
Meanwhile, Leinster have been boosted by two returning British and Irish Lions with Garry Ringrose and Josh van der Flier making timely returns. The pair have not only been key players for Leinster over the years but for Ireland too. There is no doubting the quality of the two players following their call-ups to the Lions squad, but their attention will squarely be on this weekend and winning the URC.
Crucial to Leinster’s efforts will undoubtedly be the world-class talent of Dan Sheehan in the front row. A perfect example of a modern-day hooker, Sheehan really does it all as a powerful ball carrier, an excellent tackler and jackler while also being sharp in the set pieces. He grabbed a brace for Irish Province in the victory over the Glasgow Warriors and has a simply outrageous strike rate from his club. However, he will be wary of the set-piece challenge that lays before him this weekend.
The hosts have quality littered throughout their matchday squad and most notably in the form of Springboks lock RG Snyman and All Blacks back Jordie Barrett. The former starts from the bench, a role he has shone in for the Springboks in recent years, while the latter lines up alongside Ringrose in the centres. Both players have been outstanding this season and will look to end the season on a high after telling performances throughout the campaign.
Bulls boss White hailed the performances of David Kriel and his importance to the squad earlier this week, likening him to former Springboks captain Jean de Villiers. Kriel produced the match-winning moment the last time these two sides faced off, slotting a clutch penalty at Loftus and did similar to the Sharks last week with his try all-but securing passage into the final. A wonderfully gifted player that has repeatedly produced his best in the big matches.
The men from Pretoria have arguably the best scrum in club rugby right now and while Wilco Louw has played a massive role in that, Jan-Hendrik Wessels has certainly come into his own this season. The 24-year-old flexed his prowess last week against the Sharks as he clearly got the better of double World Cup winner Vincent Koch and that has been a running theme this season for the rising star. It’s not just in the scrums where he has shone but around the park too and is a ridiculous athlete for a man his size.
The Bulls’ entire tight-five have powered them through to this stage of the competition, with Cobus Wiese enjoying a particularly outstanding campaign, including a blockbuster outing against the Sharks last week. A powerhouse on both sides of the ball, he is also superb at lineout time and will pose a real threat to Leinster in the pack.
Finally, it would be remiss of us not to mention the two fly-halves, Sam Prendergast and Johan Goosen. Two incredibly talented tacticians and kickers who will be tasked with dictating proceedings at Croke Park. Prendergast shot to stardom after making his Test debut last season but the youngster’s drawbacks have been in the spotlight in recent times as he has struggled defensively. Against Glasgow, he made just 20% of his tackles and slotted only 38% of his kicks, the kind of shift he simply cannot afford if it’s a tight encounter. Meanwhile, Goosen has struggled with injuries but returned in fine fettle against the Sharks. The Bulls have been forced to shift Keagan Johannes to fly-half due to Goosen’s injury and he shone in doing so but the former Boks return is a huge boost tactically.
Main head-to-head
It simply has to be in the front row as two quality internationals go toe-to-toe in the form of Andrew Porter and Wilco Louw. As mentioned above, the Bulls have possibly the most dominant scrum in the club game right now and that is spearheaded by the tremendous Louw who has been in stellar form up front.
The Springboks’ tighthead has been a revelation at the Bulls since returning to South Africa after a stint at Harlequins and the set piece is bound to have a huge influence on the outcome of the match.
But Louw will not have it all his own way against the British and Irish Lions call-up Porter who is more than capable of holding his own at scrum time. The Irish loosehead is vastly experienced and will undoubtedly have a trick or two up his sleeve to turn the tide or at least hold his own against the powerhouse Bok.
Porter is also an outstanding athlete and often goes incredibly deep in matches and has the ability to play a full game if needed. Leinster will be hugely reliant on him to provide a solid platform in the scrums and if he is unable to do so, the Irish Province could well be conceding a plethora of penalties gifting the visitors’ field possession which they simply cannot afford.
Prediction
Despite the URC final seeing the top two teams in the competition throughout the regular season phase going head-to-head, the bookies are remarkably predicting a double-digit victory for Leinster which points to just how brilliant the Irish side have been this season.
It’s not the first time that Cullen’s charges have been dubbed as the favourites in the final and maybe this will be the year that they finally end their long wait for silverware having failed to win a trophy since 2021.
Leinster’s record against the Bulls is not a pretty one and the double-digit winning margin is certainly possible but does feel rather unlikely.
The hosts look to have the upper hand in attack but the Bulls’ defence has been mightily impressive in the latter parts of this season and the same is true for Leinster. It’s a coin flip and is bound to be decided by discipline, the set pieces, and accuracy off the tee. Then there is the emotional aspect with Leinster driven to finally clinch some silverware with the star-studded squad repeatedly failing to do so while the Bulls aim to pay tribute to the late Cornal Hendricks with a title. Ultimately, we predict that it won’t be third time lucky for the Bulls as Leinster finally end their trophy drought and four years of heart-breaking with a narrow three-point victory at Croke Park.
Previous results
2025: Bulls won 21-20 at Loftus Versfeld
2024: Bulls won 25-20 at Loftus Versfeld
2024: Leinster won 47-14 at the RDS Arena
2023: Bulls won 62-7 at Lotfus Versfeld
2022: Bulls won 26-27 at the RDS Arena
The teams
Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Max Deegan, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Ross Byrne, 23 Jamie Osborne
Bulls: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canon Moodie, 13 David Kriel, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Sebastian de Klerk, 10 Johan Goosen, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Marcell Coetzee, 7 Ruan Nortje (c), 6 Marco van Staden, 5 JF van Heerden, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Jan-Hendrik Wessels
Replacements: 16 Akker van der Merwe, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Mornay Smith, 19 Jannes Kirsten, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Zak Burger, 22 Keagan Johannes, 23 Devon Williams
Venue: Croke Park, Dublin
Kick-off: 17:00 UK / 18:00 SAST
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR, 55th league game)
Assistants: Mike Adamson (SRU) and Sam Grove-White (SRU)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)
Live on: TG4, SuperSport, Premier Sports, Flo Rugby & URC.tv
Src: Planetrugby.com - https://www.planetrugby.com/news/urc-final-preview-hungry-leinster-aim-to-end-trophy-drought-as-dominant-bulls-play-for-a-bigger-purpose
