Sir John Kirwan believes that the All Blacks will overtake the Springboks at the summit of the World Rugby rankings following an improved 2025.
New Zealand endured a difficult start under new head coach Scott Robertson but there were signs of progression towards the end of 2024.
Kirwan therefore predicts that they will continue to make strides under Robertson and will benefit from the Springboks’ more challenging schedule.
South Africa have to head to New Zealand for two away games in Auckland and Wellington, which according to Boks legend Victor Matfield is part of a “tough year”.
Rankings crucial for World Cup draw
Matfield joined Kirwan on the Rivals podcast and started off by giving his prediction for the rankings ahead of the Rugby World Cup draw that takes place at the end of 2025.
“The French are shooting themselves in the foot because who you are playing in the pools will definitely make it easier or harder at the World Cup,” he said, referring to Les Bleus’ decision to send a weakened team to face the All Blacks in July.
“New Zealand have got an easier route this year so I won’t be surprised if New Zealand is first – I can’t believe I’m saying this.
“South Africa have got a tough year, they have to play New Zealand away from home twice, play Ireland away, the French away, so it’s a very difficult year for South Africa.
“I would say New Zealand at number one, South Africa will be two, the French will be third, England fourth and Ireland fifth.”
World Rugby rankings: How the final round of the Six Nations influenced the top four
Kirwan agreed with Matfield about the position he had the All Blacks in but not the rest of the top-five.
The former New Zealand wing even thinks that the Springboks could end the year in third position – behind Ireland – with France in fourth.
Springboks leading the way
“I’m different, I don’t agree. I think there are a couple of things in play. For New Zealand, we have the current world champions [at home],” Kirwan said.
“I thought we got close to working them out: the way South Africa play, the ‘Bomb Squad’, Rassie and his innovation.
“We got close last year but we didn’t get the cookies, especially in South Africa. I thought we should have won both of those Tests, but the experience and the greatness of that side got through.
“New Zealand, if we want to win the next World Cup, have got to have a really dominant season. We’ve got to bring some new stuff to the table. We have to work out how we’re going to beat South Africa.
“New Zealand will be one, Ireland will be two and South Africa will be three. France will be four because they don’t really care about the internationals, they only care about World Cups and Six Nations.”
Kirwan believes that it will be a very different challenge for the Springboks this year, who followed up their Rugby World Cup triumph with an excellent 2024.
‘Not good enough to lose to South Africa anymore’
“It’s a little bit like the Blues last year when you win something. You’ve got to remember that we’re all chasing South Africa and New Zealand used to be the team others would chase,” he said.
“But we’re chasing South Africa now. As hard as it is to say, South Africa are leading world rugby in innovation, in World Cup titles.
“At some stage, you’ve got to go and beat the best team in the world and so everyone’s coming for South Africa, and I’m sure Rassie’s aware of this.
“Victor’s right, not that I’m losing any sleep that South Africa’s got a hard year – I’m actually happy – but not only do they have a hard year, everyone’s coming for them.
“They are now the level everyone’s got to get to. For us as New Zealanders, we used to go to South Africa quite a bit and win.
“We now need to win this series in New Zealand to make a point. It’s not going to be good enough to walk off and lose to South Africa anymore.”
Matfield then revised his prediction slightly, hoping that one victory in New Zealand – potentially at Eden Park – would be enough to keep top spot.
“We’re playing them twice in New Zealand so if we win one there, there’s a chance that South Africa will beat New Zealand at the holy grail in Auckland – I think they’re going all out for that game,” he said.
“If they beat them in that game, they will be number one. If they don’t get that right, they might be number two at the end of the year.”
Src: Planetrugby.com - https://www.planetrugby.com/news/sir-john-kirwan-warns-springboks-everyones-coming-for-you-as-all-blacks-legend-predicts-rankings-drop
