It was always predicted that Ireland’s encounter with France in Dublin would effectively be the Six Nations title decider and so it has proved.
England may well remain in the hunt, and their chances will improve significantly should Les Bleus emerge victorious on Saturday, but at the moment the trophy looks to be heading to either of these two world heavyweights.
Of course, Simon Easterby’s men remain the favourites having dispatched the Red Rose in their opening match and overcoming the challenges of Scotland and Wales, but they know the danger that could await this weekend.
Some of the debate in the build-up centred on whether the French would repeat their 7-1 bench split from the Italy game, a tactic the Irish scrum coach John Fogarty admitted would “spook” them. Well, they would have been justifiably frightened after Les Bleus hammered the Azzurri 73-24 in the previous round.
Fabien Galthie got the desired impact from those replacements and the head coach has once again opted for the Springboks-inspired plan, despite the obvious risk it brings.
It is something Ireland have faced before, against South Africa in the Rugby World Cup pool stages, and on that occasion it was the Irishmen who came out on top. Andy Farrell went for a traditional 5-3 back then, a tactic they rarely deviate from, but Easterby has this time, opting for a 6-2 split.
These subplots only increase the excitement and there is another which has added to the build-up in the form of Garry Ringrose’s suspension. What transpired needs not repeating as it has been covered extensively, but the rage that has built up in French ranks only adds to what could happen in Dublin.
The stage is therefore set for a tournament-defining contest and one which is incredibly difficult to call.
Where the game will be won
It is a Six Nations match which will surely be decided by the little battles, which means everything will be fiercely contested, from breakdown to set-piece and of course the kicking game. In the scrum, it appears honours even with the starting front-rows, but in the lineout Ireland have had their issues recently and the French will certainly throw men in the air in an attempt to disrupt them.
As for the contact area, Les Bleus always go hard and they have a number of pilfering options, but the Irish have been the best at recycling the ball over the past few years. However, if the visitors can win turnovers and stop Easterby’s side from securing gain line success then the French will have a significant advantage, especially with them so dangerous off counter-attack.
If Galthie’s outfit are unable to prevent the hosts from going through the phases, though, then that defence will be put under severe pressure. Since the Rugby World Cup that Shaun Edwards-designed rearguard has certainly not been as imperious as it once was and, although it has improved in the 2025 Six Nations, there are gaps for Ireland to exploit.
France’s best chance is therefore to pin their opponents back with the long kicking game. With Romain Ntamack back, they have three players – Antoine Dupont and Thomas Ramos, the other two – who can dictate field position, so it will be interesting to see how the Irish respond. England regularly ran the ball back against Les Bleus and, given Ireland’s skill set and confidence with ball in hand, it would not be a surprise to see the home side do the same.
Finally, this game will probably come down to the impact of the bench and whether France’s risk pays off. They will be desperate not to get any injuries in the backline but, if the visitors can avoid that misfortune, they will pretty much have a whole pack of forwards to come on. Ireland themselves have gone away from their usual tactic by going 6-2, which is arguably even riskier given their lack of versatility behind the scrum.
Last time they met
What they said
Ireland scrum coach John Fogarty admits that going for a 7-1 split on the bench is not something they would consider currently.
“They’ve a lot of faith in their backs to stay fit. We know they interchange their backs and they’ve got some very useful forwards, so you understand it,” Fogarty said.
“Were they trying it out for us? Maybe, I don’t know, we’re not too sure. It doesn’t change our plan a huge amount. We haven’t overly discussed it.
“It would spook us. It’s something we wouldn’t do/ They feel they can cover positions. They probably feel they have some forwards who can cover the backs as well.
“It does happen in a game, you lose players and it becomes difficult to play your game the way you want to play it. We haven’t really gone there much.”
Meanwhile, France boss Galthie wants his side to play with no fear but he has also put pressure on the officials to show “fairness” during the match.
“We can defend by attacking but also attack by defending, what is important is that we can play our rugby,” he said. “The opponent will try to stop us, but we need a framework to develop our strategy.
“At this level, we expect to be supported by decisive refereeing, consistency in reading situations. We have worked with the referees on their expectations, but also ours.
“What is tolerated? What is not? We need to have great fairness on the key points. We want to be judged fairly on the scrum, the defence and on the reading of the breakdown.
“We want to have our say on the tempo of the match and its balance in key phases. We want to get along with the referees.
“Remember the reading made on James Lowe’s try two years ago! We want to feel comfortable in a fantastic context that the Aviva Stadium represents.”
Players to watch
After Easterby confirmed that Calvin Nash was not injured, it shows that Ireland are slightly concerned by their versatility in the backline. With Mack Hansen unavailable, Nash would ordinarily be the next in line but, with them opting for a forward-heavy bench, Jamie Osborne has been shifted to the wing.
The youngster, unlike his team-mates behind the scrum who generally only play one position, has the ability to cover multiple positions. Usually a centre, he has featured at full-back and on the wing, and to be perfectly honest, could probably slot in at fly-half given his skill set, so his presence is vital in that team.
However, he has never played on the right wing in his career and he will come up against the fleet-footed Louis Bielle-Biarrey. Ireland will hope that he is not isolated too often, which means that Robbie Henshaw – starting due to Garry Ringrose’s ban – has a big job defensively in trying to prevent France getting the ball to their danger men in space.
Equally, we feel a lot will rest on Ireland’s starting front five, who need to lock out that scrum and prevent the French from getting a foothold in the set-piece. Once again standing in for Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham has never let Ireland down, while Joe McCarthy and Tadhg Beirne also need big games. Both will have to be effective in the lineout and the loose, although their jobs will be slightly different. Beirne is one of the best breakdown operators around while McCarthy will look to be physical in the carry.
A word too for Ireland legends Peter O’Mahony, Cian Healy and Conor Murray, three wonderful servants to their country who will play their final games at the Aviva Stadium. They have all been incredible players for the national team and will no doubt get a huge ovation from the supporters on Saturday. It is the type of emotional driver which Easterby’s side could use to their advantage.
As for France, we have already mentioned Bielle-Biarrey, and his threat, alongside back three colleagues Thomas Ramos and Damian Penaud, could unlock the Irish defence. Ramos is back at 15 to allow for Romain Ntamack’s return and it provides them with even more playmaking options alongside the main man Antoine Dupont.
They will also feel a sense of injustice over the fact that the fly-half is only just back from his ban in light of the suspension Ringrose received. While the hosts may be fuelled by their departing greats, Les Bleus could use the Ntamack-Ringrose situation – where Six Nations officials have been accused of double standards – to give them some added motivation.
Finally, up front, breakdown linchpin Francois Cros will be vital on both sides of the ball, while it will be fascinating to see how the powerful Mickaël Guillard goes this weekend after getting the nod over Emmanuel Meafou. Guillard was very impressive in the dominant victory over Italy thanks to his work around the field. They will rarely use the powerhouse second-row in the lineout, but he is there to provide some physical dominance on the gain line for Les Bleus.
Main head-to-head
Given all the debate around the benches, it only seems right to delve into the respective ‘Bomb Squads’. Both have gone forward-heavy, with the French the most extreme having opted for a 7-1 split, but Ireland themselves have replied in an attempt to combat their opponents. Rugby is always a 23-person sport nowadays, but the bench battle feels particularly important in Dublin this weekend.
France have gone ultra-aggressive with their selection and, like the Springboks, who have ultimately been their inspiration, they will probably introduce their players relatively early in the second period. Galthie will ask his starters to go all out before bringing on some equally incredible players, such as Julian Marchand, Cyril Baille, Meafou and Anthony Jelonch. Even the less heralded individuals, youngsters Oscar Jegou and Hugo Auradou, are set for big futures in the game – providing off-field matters do not arise.
Ireland, by contrast, will be slightly more conservative in bringing their players on. They have superb strength in the back five, in the form of James Ryan, Jack Conan and Ryan Baird, but the hosts are slightly weaker in the front-row. That is what could make the difference. With Ronan Kelleher and Furlong out injured, Rob Herring and Thomas Clarkson perhaps don’t pack the same punch as the French, while Andrew Porter, injury-depending, will almost certainly go at least 65 minutes.
Prediction
Ireland have been magnificent so far this year, despite being challenged by Wales in the third round of matches, but we think that the visitors just have the edge going into this clash. The French will need some luck, especially in regards to backline injuries, but that bench may just pay off. It is a huge risk but Les Bleus certainly have more power than the Irish coming on in the second period and that could prove to be the difference, thus changing the course of this thrilling Six Nations. France by three points.
Previous results
2024: Ireland won 38-17 in Marseille
2023: Ireland won 32-19 in Dublin
2022: France won 30-24 in Paris
2021: France won 15-13 in Dublin
2020: France won 35-27 in Paris
2019: Ireland won 26-14 in Dublin
2018: Ireland won 15-13 in Paris
2017: Ireland won 19-9 in Dublin
2016: France won 10-9 in Paris
2015: Ireland won 24-9 in Cardiff
The teams
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Jamie Osborne, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Ryan Baird, 22 Conor Murray, 23 Jack Crowley
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Mickaël Guillard, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Emmanuel Meafou, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Anthony Jelonch, 23 Maxime Lucu
Date: Saturday, March 8
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
Src: Planetrugby.com - https://www.planetrugby.com/news/ireland-v-france-preview-fabien-galthies-bomb-squad-risk-to-change-the-course-of-2025-six-nations-title-race
